Nitrogen delivery from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico: magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty
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The northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), as one of the largest hypoxic zone in the world, is near the outlet of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) that contributed to the increased fluxes of agriculturally derived nitrogen (N) since the 1950s. This increase of N exports could be primarily attributed to anthropogenic N inputs into the MARB (e.g., N fertilizer application), climate (e.g., precipitation), and land use change. A long-term data of monthly/annual dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) exports from the MARB to the GOM had been released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) since the 1970s. However, on one hand, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) also plays an active role in supplying N for phytoplankton and bacteria in aquatic ecosystems; on the other hand, monitoring data provided by the USGS could not attribute the contributions of various factors to this N increase in the northern GOM. Here, we used a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to examine changes in DIN (ammonium and nitrate) and DON exports from the MARB to the GOM during 1901~2014. Meanwhile, we investigated how climate variability, land use change, land management, and atmospheric chemistry affected the annual and seasonal patterns of N export in the study area.